Spot trends early, see where they're headed, and keep an eye on world risk. Updated every 6 hours.
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The big picture: every trend on one map, and where the hottest ones are headed.
How to read it: The three trends that gained the most heat over the last 4 weeks, the one that cooled most, and the newest whisper or new arrival. The number is the change in heat.
What it's for: Your 15-second morning check. Tap any name for the full story.
Watch for: A trend that shows up under Heating up several days running is a real move.
The heat score: a fixed 0 to 100 scale. 0 to 20 is quiet, 20 to 40 warming, 40 to 60 hot, 60 to 80 very hot, 80 to 100 red-hot. It can't go above 100. Signals add points and fade by half every 90 days. The ⓘ on the map has the full explanation.
How to read it: Each bubble is a trend. Left to right is how far along it is; higher means hotter right now; bigger means more evidence. Tap a bubble to open why it's trending, who's behind it, and every source. Zoom in and each bubble sprouts small dots, one per signal type fueling it, sized by how many signals and colored by type.
What it's for: Your 10-second check on what's worth paying attention to.
Watch for: Bubbles high up in the green-shaded area: early and heating. A bubble sliding right into the red-shaded area means it's getting crowded. Bubble color is its heat, using the same scale as the strip under the map. When zoomed in, a trend fueled by Funding and Key people is early; one fueled by Social and Courses is late.
Bubble size: how many signals back it. Big means well proven, small means it could still move a lot.
On a phone: each bubble shows its rank number, and the list under the map matches the numbers to names. Pinch to zoom and the names appear on the map.
The heat score: A fixed scale from 0 to 100 that means the same thing every day. 0 to 20 is quiet, 20 to 40 is warming, 40 to 60 is hot, 60 to 80 is very hot, and 80 to 100 is red-hot. Below 0 means crowding signals outweigh the heat. Every signal adds points: 1 for a strong, fresh signal, 0.5 for one that's building, and −0.5 for one that shows crowding, and points fade by half every 90 days. About 2 strong fresh signals gets a trend to 20, about 6 gets it to 50, and it takes roughly 18 or more to pass 90. The closer a trend gets to 100, the more signals each extra point takes, so it can never go past 100. Early on, with few signals, one new signal can move a trend 10 points or so.
Every trend on one map. Further right is later in its life, higher is hotter, bigger has more evidence. Tap a bubble or a name in the list for why. The ⓘ explains the score.
How to read it: Solid lines are what happened, dashed lines are the forecast, and the shaded band is how unsure it is. The dashed line marks today.
What it's for: Shows which trends are likely to keep rising or start cooling over the coming weeks.
Watch for: A dashed line still climbing with a narrow band is the strongest call. A very wide band means: don't trust it yet.
The heat score: a fixed 0 to 100 scale. 0 to 20 is quiet, 20 to 40 warming, 40 to 60 hot, 60 to 80 very hot, 80 to 100 red-hot. It can't go above 100. Signals add points and fade by half every 90 days. The ⓘ on the map has the full explanation.
Where the forecast comes from: two parts. First, today's signals fade by half every 90 days, which is certain. Second, new signals are expected at the trend's average weekly pace over the last 26 weeks. A short burst of news doesn't get stretched into a runaway line. The band is the likely range (8 in 10 chance) based on how uneven that pace has been.
Solid lines are what happened. Dashed lines are the forecast, with the shaded band showing how sure it is. Right now it can see — weeks ahead from — weeks of history. That reach grows as the collector logs more data and as its calls prove right, up to five years out.
Trends you starred: what they were, what they are now, and whether each one is speeding up, cooling off or turning into a problem.
How to read it: Each card compares a trend 30 days ago, when you started watching, and now. The line is its heat over the last year. Tap a name for the full why.
What it's for: Following the few trends that matter to you without digging through everything else.
Watch for: Trending harder means heat is up or it moved toward hot. Cooling off means heat is dropping. Becoming a problem means it just slid into crowded or fading.
The ! badge: green means a big good change (up 5 or more, or moved toward hot), red means a big bad one (down 5 or more, or slid into crowded or fading).
The heat score: a fixed 0 to 100 scale. 0 to 20 is quiet, 20 to 40 warming, 40 to 60 hot, 60 to 80 very hot, 80 to 100 red-hot. It can't go above 100. Signals add points and fade by half every 90 days. The ⓘ on the map has the full explanation.
Open any trend and tap ☆ Watch. Your watchlist is saved on this device only, and each card remembers where the trend stood the day you starred it.
What's heating up, which signal types are driving it, and the raw signals behind every number.
How to read it: Each line is one trend's heat over the last year, measured weekly.
What it's for: Shows momentum: is a trend speeding up, flat, or fading?
Watch for: Lines that bend upward sharply are breakouts. A line rolling over after a peak often means crowding.
The heat score: a fixed 0 to 100 scale. 0 to 20 is quiet, 20 to 40 warming, 40 to 60 hot, 60 to 80 very hot, 80 to 100 red-hot. It can't go above 100. Signals add points and fade by half every 90 days. The ⓘ on the map has the full explanation.
Weekly heat per field over the last year, on the fixed 0 to 100 heat scale. Rising lines are heating up. Fills in more as the collector logs signals.
How to read it: Rows are trends, columns are signal types. Darker blue is hotter; red means crowding signals.
What it's for: Shows what's driving each trend: money, jobs, social buzz, politics or key people.
Watch for: Trends hot in Funding or Key people but cold in Social are early. Hot in Social and Courses means late.
The heat score: the same fixed 0 to 100 scale as the trends, for one trend and one signal type at a time, so squares are usually small. Darker means hotter.
Darker blue is hotter. Red cells mean crowding signals.
How to read it: Each bar is one signal type's share of all the heat across every trend.
What it's for: Shows where the action is right now across the whole world.
Watch for: When Funding and Key people lead, new waves are starting. When Courses and Social lead, a lot of things are peaking.
The numbers: each bar is that signal type's share of all the heat across every trend, so they add up to 100%.
Each signal type's share of all the heat right now. The shares add up to 100%.
How to read it: Heat now is current momentum. Toward jobs and toward courses show where that heat is flowing next.
What it's for: Separates real opportunity from hype that's about to get crowded.
Watch for: Opportunity building means heat is flowing to jobs faster than to courses: the window is open. Crowding coming means everyone's piling in.
Heat flowing toward jobs means opportunity is building. Heat flowing toward courses and tutorials means crowding is on the way.
| Field | Heat now | Toward jobs | Toward courses | Outlook |
|---|
How to read it: Each row is one public statement or official move, with the trend it affects and the source.
What it's for: Powerful people often move markets and policy before anything else shifts.
Watch for: Several key people talking about the same trend in a short span usually comes before money moves.
Public statements and official moves by leaders, central bankers and top CEOs, tied to the trend they affect.
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| Who | Date | Trend | What they said or did | Source |
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How to read it: Every raw signal the collector found, newest first, with its type, stage and a link to the source.
What it's for: The evidence behind every number on this dashboard. Tap a source to check it yourself.
Watch for: Entries starting with Early whisper are single sightings; they get confirmed or dropped within 14 days.
Real-world signals showing which stage each field is in. Green means heating up, amber is building, red means crowding.
| Date | Field | Type | Signal | Stage | Source |
|---|
Today's pressure on the world system, and what serious forecasters say the real odds are.
How to read it: The needle is the average stress across six risk areas on a 0 to 100 scale. Bars show each area and whether it's rising or falling.
What it's for: A calm daily read on how much pressure the world system is under.
Watch for: Watch the arrows more than the levels. One area jumping 10+ points in a day is worth reading about. This is pressure, not odds of the end.
How stressed the world system is right now, on a 0 to 100 scale per risk, rescored daily from the news. This measures pressure right now. For actual probabilities, see the realistic odds panel below, built only from published forecaster and expert estimates.
Official Doomsday Clock: — seconds to midnight, set — by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
How to read it: Each row is one published estimate. The dot is the estimate, the faint bar is its likely range when the source gave one, and the "1 in" wording turns the percent into everyday odds. Each step on the scale is 10 times likelier than the one before. Blue estimates come from forecasters with a tested track record of accurate predictions, orange from experts and researchers in the field.
All sources combined: where several groups estimated the same outcome, the cards below pool them into one number and show the full range so you can see how much they disagree.
What it's for: Gives you realistic numbers instead of headlines.
Watch for: Compare the per-year figure with everyday risks. Gaps between superforecasters and experts show where people genuinely disagree.
Published estimates from tested forecasters and expert surveys. Each step on the bar is 10 times likelier than the one before, so tiny and big odds both fit. Tap any source to read it.
Bottom line: top forecasters put human extinction by 2100 at about —%, and domain experts at about —%. A disaster killing at least 1 in 10 people is far likelier: —% to —%. Big but survivable disasters, like a war or pandemic killing over a million people in a year, are the real near-term risk. Nobody can check these numbers until it's too late, so treat them as informed judgment, not fact.
Where several groups estimated the same thing, their numbers are pooled into one, using the geometric mean of the odds, the standard way forecasters combine independent estimates. The per-year figure is the easiest to compare with everyday risks.
How much to trust each part, when today's career fields are likely to get crowded, and the method behind it.
How to read it: Each part of the app gets a plain rating, worked out from the live numbers: how much data is behind it and how well it has done when checked.
What it's for: So you know which numbers to lean on and which to treat as a rough guide.
Watch for: Ratings move up as the collector gathers more signals and the weekly accuracy checks come in.
How to read it: Every week the collector writes down a clear call for each trend, like "hotter in 30 days" or "moves into crowded". 30 days later it checks what actually happened and marks it right or wrong. Nothing gets edited after the fact.
What it's for: This is how the app learns. Once a month it adjusts its own settings, like how much each kind of signal counts and how fast heat fades, toward whatever would have made past calls more accurate. Every change is logged here.
Watch for: A coin flip gets about half right. The goal is 75 to 85% over time. Expect a few months of calls before the number means much.
How to read it: Each row is a career field: roughly when it gets crowded, the likely range, and about how many years are left. "May be crowding now" means the range has already started.
What it's for: Helps decide which skills are worth building now.
Watch for: More years left plus a high barrier to entry is the safest bet.
When each field is likely to get crowded, meaning more people chasing it than there are good jobs. Hard to enter: 1 means anyone with a laptop can get in within weeks, 5 means hands-on skill, credentials and years. Years are rounded, and the range is the honest error from past trends.
| Field | Hard to enter | Crowded around | Likely range | Years left |
|---|
How to read it: Each row is a trend's lifecycle. Filled dots happened; hollow dots are forecasts with a range bar.
What it's for: Shows how past trends played out, so you can judge the forecasts for today's fields.
Watch for: How long past trends took from job spike to flooded. Newer trends move faster.
Filled dots are stages that already happened. Hollow dots are forecasts, with the bar showing the backtest error range. The dashed line is today.
How to read it: Each bar is how many years early or late the model would have been on a past trend it hadn't seen.
What it's for: An honest check on how much to trust the forecasts.
Watch for: Short bars mean good calls. Long red bars show where the model has missed before.
Each past trend was hidden from the model, then predicted. Bars show how many years early or late the guess was.
How to read it: Arrows show which signal types push others. Thicker means stronger; tap an arrow for its lead time.
What it's for: Explains why a spike in one place predicts movement somewhere else later.
Watch for: Strengths change as the model relearns daily. Arrows getting thicker are patterns it's confirming.
How each kind of signal pushes the others, including what key people say and do. Thicker arrows push harder. Tap an arrow for its lead time. Strengths start as estimates and get relearned once a day from the signals the collector logs every 6 hours. It shows what tends to come first, not proof that one causes the other.
How to read it: The share of the model's calls that came true, checked weekly.
What it's for: Shows whether the predictor is actually getting smarter.
Watch for: A rising line means it's learning. If it drops for a few weeks in a row, take the forecasts with more salt.
Share of calls that came true. It starts from the backtest (past trends called within 3 years). Each week the collector checks calls made 30 or more days earlier against what actually happened, so this line should climb as the model learns.
Any trend, in tech, money, culture, health or anything else, moves through the same six stages: it emerges, money floods in, it goes mainstream, how-tos and copycats boom, content floods social media, then it is crowded. A collector runs every 6 hours, watching key people in world power, money, AI and industry, plus stocks, politics, world events, news and social buzz, across sectors from AI and jobs to farms, oil, electricity, water and infrastructure. The model learns how long each stage lasts and forecasts what is next. Hands-on fields buy about — extra years per barrier point, and every year later a trend starts shortens its runway by — years.
Stage years for past trends are estimates from well-documented history, not measured job-posting series. Treat forecasts as ranges, not dates. Surprises like a new law, a crash or a breakthrough can break any model.